The Economic Storm Is Approaching! Financial Analysts' Outlook as the European Council Puts Pressure on Romania
T he projected state budget deficit for 2025 has increased to an average forecast of 7.3% of GDP, while economic growth expectations are set at an average of 1.3%, according to estimates by the CFA Romania Association. Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is anticipated to rise to 57% over the next 12 months. The forecasted inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2026) stands at an average of 5.02%. The Council recommends that Romania ends its excessive deficit situation by 2030. Romania should ensure that the nominal growth rate of net expenditures does not exceed 5.1% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027, 4.3% in 2028, 4.2% in 2029, and 3.9% in 2030. Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 85% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months. The average six-month forecast is 5.0404 lei per euro, while the 12-month forecast average is 5.0886 lei per euro. "Although the macroeconomic confidence indicator corrected itself in Decemb...